The only aurora forecast that checks the clouds too. We combine aurora and cloud cover forecasts with separate naked-eye and camera visibility rings for your exact zip code.
Seeing the aurora requires geomagnetic activity overhead AND clear sky beneath you — and "overhead" is measured in magnetic latitude, not the map latitude you're used to.
Your zip or postal code is converted to a magnetic latitude relative to the geomagnetic pole — not the geographic one — which is why the same Kp reaches farther south over North America than over Europe.
A tighter naked-eye ring and a wider camera ring, both keyed to Kp by magnetic latitude, plus your local NWS cloud forecast for tonight.
One confidence score, split clearly into "confirmed now" versus "if the inbound CME arrives as modeled," so you always know which one you're looking at.
Every confidence score is built from two independent readings so you can see exactly why tonight looks good — or doesn't.
Analysts at NASA's Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M SWAO) track coronal mass ejections (solar storms erupting from the Sun) and model whether each one is headed for Earth. The tables below are those potential Earth-directed events: CMEs that, if they arrive as modeled, could enhance geomagnetic activity and lead to stronger northern lights.
No daily digest, no spam — just a heads-up when a significant CME is inbound. Unsubscribe anytime.
No proprietary weather models — just the same government sources scientists use, translated into one plain-language answer.
It's a probability, not a guarantee. Geomagnetic storm forecasts depend on modeled coronal mass ejections that can arrive late, weaker than predicted, or miss Earth entirely. The confidence score reflects that uncertainty rather than hiding it.
Naked-eye visibility means the aurora should be visible to the eye. Camera-only visibility means a long-exposure camera can pick up aurora activity — usually as a faint reddish or greenish glow — even when it isn't visible to the eye, and it extends noticeably farther from the pole than naked-eye visibility does.
Aurora visibility tracks magnetic latitude, not straight geographic latitude, and the magnetic pole is offset from the geographic pole toward northern Canada. That's why, at the same Kp index, aurora is visible farther south over North America than over Europe at a similar geographic latitude.
The Kp index simply stays at background levels and the elevated forecast quietly doesn't happen. That's a normal outcome of CME forecasting, not an error — which is why confirmed current Kp and CME-dependent outlook are always shown separately.
Yes. Geomagnetic forecasting is global. Cloud forecasts use the National Weather Service inside the United States and a global weather source everywhere else, including Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the UK.